Equity For a discussion of how and why, despite our negative view on commodity prices, we still have a wee bit of exposure to commodities through commodity-linked equity, please see this week’s edition of La Carpeta Negra Alternative Assets: We revise Brent down. The equity correction continues

Equity Summary A (downward) market correction is drop in an index that temporarily interrupts but does not reverse a trend. This is what we think is going on: a temporary drop but not a reversal in a bull market with at least another 18 months to run.  

Equity Summary Most global stock markets continued their decline this week, with the S&P 500 index closing down 2.2% today Friday from a week ago. Nonetheless, our stock market outlook for October and beyond remains sunny. We expect the ongoing risk asset correction to end sometime after the Fed has announced its first rate hike […]

Equity Summary As you can see by the graph below, China’s stock market had been bubbling and now is correcting. The correction began on June 11 and through Friday 26 June measured 11.3% in USD terms. So far, our clients are scarcely feeling a thing. Only clients with investment horizons exceeding five years have any […]

Equity In our central scenario, stock market volatility will now move sharply up and stocks will start trending down and continue to do so over the next few months. Soon after the Fed begins its normalization process (probably in September), however, stocks quickly rebound, by the end of this year recovering fully and perhaps even […]

Equity We hold to our view that, because rates will stay low for long, the stock market bull run is not yet over. China’s stock market continues to defy gravity. It shows what we have often mentioned here: macro performance and market performance need not coincide. Brazil’s stock valuations are a temptation, but we prefer […]

Equity We’re bullish on equity for 2015 and 2016 as a whole but expect valuations to undergo a transitory stock market sell-off once markets become convinced that the FOMC is bound to hike rates for the first time soon. This could come as soon as the Janet Yellen press conference following the March 17–18 meeting. […]

Equity We think that the bull market has longer to run so are overweight equity relative to our neutral position of 0% for short-term (6–24-month) model[1] and client portfolios, 40% for medium-term (2–5-year) portfolios, and 60% for long-term (5+-year) ones. We have revised our strategies for the equity portions of all our portfolios. For details, […]

Equity Data compendium In China we’re seeing value and momentum both

Equity Q3 earnings reports surprise up more than down